2,836 research outputs found

    Full-field and anomaly initialization using a low-order climate model: a comparison and proposals for advanced formulations

    Get PDF
    Initialization techniques for seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions fall into two main categories; namely full-field initialization (FFI) and anomaly initialization (AI). In the FFI case the initial model state is replaced by the best possible available estimate of the real state. By doing so the initial error is efficiently reduced but, due to the unavoidable presence of model deficiencies, once the model is let free to run a prediction, its trajectory drifts away from the observations no matter how small the initial error is. This problem is partly overcome with AI where the aim is to forecast future anomalies by assimilating observed anomalies on an estimate of the model climate. The large variety of experimental setups, models and observational networks adopted worldwide make it difficult to draw firm conclusions on the respective advantages and drawbacks of FFI and AI, or to identify distinctive lines for improvement. The lack of a unified mathematical framework adds an additional difficulty toward the design of adequate initialization strategies that fit the desired forecast horizon, observational network and model at hand. Here we compare FFI and AI using a low-order climate model of nine ordinary differential equations and use the notation and concepts of data assimilation theory to highlight their error scaling properties. This analysis suggests better performances using FFI when a good observational network is available and reveals the direct relation of its skill with the observational accuracy. The skill of AI appears, however, mostly related to the model quality and clear increases of skill can only be expected in coincidence with model upgrades. We have compared FFI and AI in experiments in which either the full system or the atmosphere and ocean were independently initialized. In the former case FFI shows better and longer-lasting improvements, with skillful predictions until month 30. In the initialization of single compartments, the best performance is obtained when the stabler component of the model (the ocean) is initialized, but with FFI it is possible to have some predictive skill even when the most unstable compartment (the extratropical atmosphere) is observed. Two advanced formulations, least-square initialization (LSI) and exploring parameter uncertainty (EPU), are introduced. Using LSI the initialization makes use of model statistics to propagate information from observation locations to the entire model domain. Numerical results show that LSI improves the performance of FFI in all the situations when only a portion of the system's state is observed. EPU is an online drift correction method in which the drift caused by the parametric error is estimated using a short-time evolution law and is then removed during the forecast run. Its implementation in conjunction with FFI allows us to improve the prediction skill within the first forecast year. Finally, the application of these results in the context of realistic climate models is discussed

    Dichromacy: Color Vision Impairment and Consanguinity in Heterogenous Population of Pakistan

    Full text link
    Background and Objectives: Dichromacy, an X-linked recessive disorder is identified worldwide, more in males than females. In European Caucasians, its incidence is 8% in males and 0.5% in females. In India, it is 8.73% in males and 1.69% in females, and in Iran, it is 8.18% in males and 0.43% in females. Population based epidemiological data about dichromacy in different ethnic groups in Pakistan is not available. The aim of this study was to find out the population prevalence of inherited red-green dichromacy in a heterogenous population of the district of Chiniot, Punjab, Pakistan, and to determine the impact of consanguinity and ethnicity. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, boys and girls of the higher secondary schools were examined in the three tehsils of district Chiniot. Pseudoisochromatic Ishihara Test has been employed for detection of dichromacy in the study population. The sample size was calculated statistically as 260, which was expanded to 705 and divided by population density of the three tehsils. Results: Screening of 359 males and 346 females revealed 19 (5.29%) dichromat males and only 2 (0.58%) females. The study population belonged to 23 castes / isonym groups. The consanguinity found in the district of Chiniot is 84.82% and in the dichromat families, it is 85.71%, of which 52.37% are first cousin. Interpretation & Conclusion: The study has shown that the incidence of dichromacy could be reduced through genetic counselin

    The changing UV and X-ray properties of the Of?p star CPD -28 2561

    Full text link
    The Of?p star CPD -28 2561 was monitored at high energies with XMM-Newton and HST. In X-rays, this magnetic oblique rotator displays bright and hard emission that varies by ~55% with rotational phase. These changes occur in phase with optical variations, as expected for magnetically confined winds; there are two maxima and two minima in X-rays during the 73d rotational period of CPD -28 2561. However, contrary to previously studied cases, no significant hardness variation is detected between minima and maxima, with the exception of the second minimum which is slightly distinct from the first one. In the UV domain, broad-band fluxes remain stable while line profiles display large variations. Stronger absorptions at low velocities are observed when the magnetic equator is seen edge-on, which can be reproduced by a detailed 3D model. However, a difference in absorption at high velocities in the CIV and NV lines is also detected for the two phases where the confined wind is seen nearly pole-on. This suggests the presence of strong asymmetries about the magnetic equator, mostly in the free-flowing wind (rather than in the confined dynamical magnetosphere).Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication by MNRA

    Frequency of Clinical Symptoms of Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease in Asthmatic Patients

    Full text link
    Background: Gastroesophageal reflex is known as an acid reflex, is long term condition where stomach contents back into the oesophagus resulting in either symptoms or complications. GERD disease is caused by weakness or failure of the lower oesophageal sphincter. Symptoms include the acidic taste behind the mouth, heart burn, chest pain, difficult breathing and vomiting. Complication includes esophagitis, oesophageal strictures and barrettes oesophagus. Objective: The aim of this research was to introduce the symptoms of GERD disease in asthmatic patients and how these symptoms worsen the symptoms of asthma disease and what clinical pictures present with the asthmatic disease. Methodology: A designed performa was used to collect the data and after filling the performa, results were drawn and conclusion through the facts and the information given by patients. Results: In the present study among all 164 asthmatic patients, 70 (42.7%) patients showed dyspepsia, 58 (35.4%) were with chest burning, 23 (14%) were asking about chest pain, with acidic mouth taste were 39 (23.8%), 22 (13.4%) were feeling sore throat and 44 (26.8%) showed regurgitation reflex. Among these 164 patients 16 (9.8%) were smokers and 148 (90.2 %) were non-smokers. 47 (28.7%) were males and 117 (71.3%) were females. Conclusion: It is concluded that gastroesophageal reflux disease in asthmatic patients present symptoms of acidic mouth taste, chest burning, chest pain, dyspepsia, regurgitation reflex and sore throat

    Peningkatan Aktivitas Belajar IPA Fisika Dengan Menggunakan Model Pembelajaran Team Assisted Individualisation (TAI) Pada Siswa SMP Negeri 2 Kepil Wonosobo

    Get PDF
    Telah dilakukan penelitian guna mengetahui peningkatan aktivitas belajar IPA fisika dengan menggunakan model pembelajaran Team Assisted Individualisation (TAI) pada siswa SMP Negeri 2 Kepil Wonosobo. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian tindakan kelas (PTK), dengan subyek siswa SMP Negeri 2 Kepil Wonosobo kelas VII A yang berjumlah 23 siswa. Penelitian ini dilakukan dalam dua siklus. Hasil dari penelitian menunjukkan bahwa aktivitas siswa mengalami peningkatan dari siklus I ke siklus II. Perolehan persentase untuk hasil observasi aktivitas belajar pada pra siklus sebesar 46,38% pada siklus I meningkat menjadi 56,52% dan setelah siklus II meningkat menjadi 80,07%. Perolehan persentase untuk angket aktivitas belajar pra siklus sebesar 49,28%, pada siklus I meningkat menjadi 57,25%, dan pada siklus II meningkat menjadi 80,80%. Untuk hasil belajar siswa pra siklus 56,96 pada siklus I menjadi 66,67 dan siklus II meningkat menjadi 80,26. Dapat disimpulkan bahwa model pembelajaran TAI dapat meningkatkan aktivitas belajar IPA fisika kelas VII A SMP Negeri 2 Kepil Wonosobo

    Centrifugal Breakout of Magnetically Confined Line-Driven Stellar Winds

    Full text link
    We present 2D MHD simulations of the radiatively driven outflow from a rotating hot star with a dipole magnetic field aligned with the star's rotation axis. We focus primarily on a model with moderately rapid rotation (half the critical value), and also a large magnetic confinement parameter, ηB2R2/M˙V=600\eta_{\ast} \equiv B_{\ast}^2 R_{\ast}^{2} / \dot{M} V_{\infty} = 600. The magnetic field channels and torques the wind outflow into an equatorial, rigidly rotating disk extending from near the Kepler corotation radius outwards. Even with fine-tuning at lower magnetic confinement, none of the MHD models produce a stable Keplerian disk. Instead, material below the Kepler radius falls back on to the stellar surface, while the strong centrifugal force on material beyond the corotation escape radius stretches the magnetic loops outwards, leading to episodic breakout of mass when the field reconnects. The associated dissipation of magnetic energy heats material to temperatures of nearly 10810^{8}K, high enough to emit hard (several keV) X-rays. Such \emph{centrifugal mass ejection} represents a novel mechanism for driving magnetic reconnection, and seems a very promising basis for modeling X-ray flares recently observed in rotating magnetic Bp stars like σ\sigma Ori E.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, accepted by ApJ
    corecore